Monday, February 7, 2011

Business: Everybody buying everybody else is a good sign-- I think!

AOL just bought a publication site called The Huffington Post. For $300 million.

Several other big companies have paid hefty prices for several other smaller or newer companies.

All in the past month or so....

A burst of deals, especially ones at high prices consolidating industries, occurs on the way to a market recovery.

When the recession hits hard, businesses hunker down: They cut costs, find efficiencies, and if the are profitable, they conserve cash rather than expand, waiting for future opportunities.

Meanwhile, the government slashes interest rates in hopes of stimulating business. The idea is to make it cheaper for businesses to borrow money to expand or launch new initiatives. But generally, they don't -- instead, they refinance any debt to lower their costs, again.

But on the side, businesses also realize that zero interest rates also means that the pile of cash they're sitting on isn't generating returns. So one fine day they wake up and decide to put it to better use by buying competitors, new markets, or hot startups. Especially irresistable are companies that could use a cash infusion, and so are for sale cheap. Or cheaper than they'll be when the economy recovers later.

So they start buying companies. And boom -- this generates the economic stimulus the government was looking for but not finding.

And....we're back!

I only hope it's true this time too.

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